It is currently Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:34 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 7 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Amazing flop: 3 sets
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:27 am 
Offline
PSO Gold
PSO Gold

Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2005 2:39 am
Posts: 142
Location: Fernie, BC
Ok this hand had the ideal outcome for me but more often than not they seem to get me in trouble. I was sure one of them were on the heart draw. With my mentality lately I was ready to fold as I was sure a heart would hit (which it did, and i almost crapped my pants).

I have a lot of problems with my game. Tilt, drinking while playing, etc. Usually I start off playing smart then I hit a hand like this that goes the other way with someone hitting a flush. Then my game goes down hill. I have a hard time minimizing big losses and maximizing my wins when I have the nutz or good hands.

Should I be folding a hand like this where I have to get my all my money in when my opponent has so many possible outs? I know the obvious answer is no, but it seems to me that I may be better in controlled pots/hands and working on maximizing my profits once I know i have the best hand.

So basically would you have called when you were sure your opponents were chasing a flush and it would cost you $81?



Getting Hand History Information...
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #45622930-16656 at Union Gap (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 18/Sep/07 23:07:32

ShartSkid is at seat 0 with $50.95.
Ro05T3R is at seat 1 with $83.25.
holder100 is at seat 2 with $24.
Aces Up 14 is at seat 3 with $52.05.
johannes42 is at seat 4 with $17.
Chris szy is at seat 5 with $47.25.
1Sasquatch is at seat 6 with $112.10.
spanky9994 is at seat 7 with $81.75.
mancie is at seat 9 with $96.20.
The button is at seat 7.

mancie posts the big blind of $.50.

ShartSkid: -- --
Ro05T3R: -- --
holder100: -- --
Aces Up 14: -- --
johannes42: -- --
Chris szy: -- --
1Sasquatch: 9s 9d
spanky9994: -- --
mancie: -- --

Pre-flop:

ShartSkid calls. Ro05T3R calls. holder100 folds.
Aces Up 14 calls. johannes42 raises to $2.25. Chris
szy calls. 1Sasquatch calls. spanky9994 calls.
mancie folds. ShartSkid calls. Ro05T3R calls.
Aces Up 14 folds.

Flop (board: 4h 9c 6h):

ShartSkid checks. Ro05T3R checks. johannes42
checks. Chris szy checks. 1Sasquatch bets $4.75.
spanky9994 folds. ShartSkid folds. Ro05T3R raises
to $15. johannes42 folds. Chris szy goes all-in for
$45. 1Sasquatch goes all-in for $109.85. Ro05T3R
goes all-in for $81. 1Sasquatch is returned $28.85
(uncalled).

Turn (board: 4h 9c 6h 8c):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 4h 9c 6h 8c Ah):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

1Sasquatch shows 9s 9d.
1Sasquatch has 9s 9d 9c 8c Ah: three nines.
Ro05T3R shows 4s 4c.
Ro05T3R has 4s 4c 4h 9c Ah: three fours.
Chris szy shows 6s 6c.
Chris szy has 6s 6c 9c 6h Ah: three sixes.


Hand #45622930-16656 Summary:

$3 is raked from a total pot of $221.50.
$3 is raked from the main pot of $149.50.
$0 is raked from side pot #1 of $72.
1Sasquatch wins the main pot $146.50 with three nines.
1Sasquatch wins the side pot $72 with three nines.
----------------------------------------------------------------


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:33 pm 
Offline
PSO Gold
PSO Gold

Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:49 am
Posts: 140
Location: Germany
I know what you're talking about - I also have a somewhat sick feeling in such situations, but that's just part of the game. Granted, if the opponent is on a flush draw, he has quite some outs to beat you - but even if he is holding something like 7h8h, you are still way ahead. You of course have a couple of outs for your full house, too.

Moreover, there are numerous other possibilities for the opponents holdings - I think a lot of players would also put all their chips in holding just two pair or an overpair. It could also happen that both opponents are on a flush draw, reducing each others outs.

Anyway, the thing is that in any scenario folding would be a clear -EV move. But you know this. You have to accept losing such a hand despite being way ahead happens. Remember you will be in the same or similar situation a lot of times again, and most of the time you will definitely win. Since in cash games it's all about EV, don't waste money by folding the nuts!

Calling and losing the hand might put you on tilt, right. You might lose more money if you tilt, also true. However, IMO the solution is not to avoid this situation by folding such clear +EV hands and basically throwing money away, but rather to work on the tilt problem itself. Force yourself to stop playing if you lose such a hand. I know this is difficult, especially if the opponent won despite making a very bad call and you think you might get your money back if you continue playing. But you won't if such a beat upsets you too much. So take a break for an hour, a day or how long it takes you to stop thinking about this stupid hand over and over again.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Amazing flop: 3 sets
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 3:35 pm 
Offline
PSO Extreme
PSO Extreme

Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:12 pm
Posts: 1112
Bighairybeast wrote:
I have a lot of problems with my game. Tilt, drinking while playing, etc. Usually I start off playing smart then I hit a hand like this that goes the other way with someone hitting a flush. Then my game goes down hill. I have a hard time minimizing big losses and maximizing my wins when I have the nutz or good hands.

Should I be folding a hand like this where I have to get my all my money in when my opponent has so many possible outs? I know the obvious answer is no, but it seems to me that I may be better in controlled pots/hands and working on maximizing my profits once I know i have the best hand.


That's so great that you can admit that to yourself. Most players go on in denial about such things.

Your solution to fixing it is two-fold AFAIC. First, you need to accept that poker is gambling and that your job is simply to turn it into gambling with the better side of the odds.

Then figure out how best to approach it. A bet of $4 into a $13 pot when you have top set and are scared of being drawn out on is not the best approach. You're allowing the past to negatively affect the present, and poker is a game that must be played in the present. Granted, with knowledge of the past like players tendencies etc, but you are better off ignoring the distracting knowledge of the past like "I took a bad beat last time" etc.

You are probably suffering from previous bad beat syndrome and trying to be greedy here. You're thinking you want to get SOMETHING from top set. But accept that sometimes you'll get NOTHING except what's in the pot. Bet it to allow for opponents to make mistakes. Go ahead and bet $10 or $12 there and force them to raise you with a lower set, or minraise to "see where they are" (many players still make the wrong decision even after they are told where they are) or force them to pay too much for a draw. Accept that sometimes you will get no action at all, and sometimes you will get it all in against someone drawing nearly dead against you. That balances off better than the times you get $4 and allow cheap draws in.

Set over set over set is rare, but let's say in this case they all played scared of the flush draw. You bet $4, they call (or minraise because they are greedy) and a heart comes on the turn. Now everyone checks. You've missed out on a brilliant opportunity to get all those chips.

If you can accept the gambling game that poker is, and accept that sometimes you'll be drawn out on, and that sometimes you'll have a big hand and get no action, then you'll have come a long way in making your game what you want it to be.


Last edited by murf72 on Wed Sep 19, 2007 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 3:42 pm 
Offline
PSO Poker God
PSO Poker God

Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 5:38 pm
Posts: 4474
Location: Michigan
You're holding the absolute nuts on the flop with all the money going in, this is the best situation possible! You should want to do this all day every day, even if they hit the flush 35% of the time.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Amazing flop: 3 sets
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:41 am 
Offline
PSO Premium
PSO Premium

Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 1:59 pm
Posts: 744
murf72 wrote:
You're thinking you want to get SOMETHING from top set. But accept that sometimes you'll get NOTHING except what's in the pot. Bet it to allow for opponents to make mistakes. Go ahead and bet $10 or $12 there


Completely agree, well put Murf. This is one thing Ive learned recently that is so important. If youre looking to maximize your wins and trim your losses, play every hand like you should, dont worry about the past and dont get greedy. Ive noticed this the most with AA, KK, hands that I used to play softer in effort to get more money into the pot. Now I play them hard, and Ive come to the conclusion that Id much rather get all folds and take a small pot than give people a cheap peek at the next card (or three) and let them draw out on you while you lose a huge pot.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:05 pm 
Offline
PSO User

Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:05 pm
Posts: 18
Excuse me? You have top set and the question is should I maybe fold?

You know the answer is no - the fact that you consider this a questionable decision indicates that your bad run has got the worse of you and time for a poker break.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:28 pm 
Offline
PSO User

Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:51 pm
Posts: 16
chemort wrote:
I know what you're talking about - I also have a somewhat sick feeling in such situations, but that's just part of the game. Granted, if the opponent is on a flush draw, he has quite some outs to beat you - but even if he is holding something like 7h8h, you are still way ahead. You of course have a couple of outs for your full house, too.

Moreover, there are numerous other possibilities for the opponents holdings - I think a lot of players would also put all their chips in holding just two pair or an overpair. It could also happen that both opponents are on a flush draw, reducing each others outs.

Anyway, the thing is that in any scenario folding would be a clear -EV move. But you know this. You have to accept losing such a hand despite being way ahead happens. Remember you will be in the same or similar situation a lot of times again, and most of the time you will definitely win. Since in cash games it's all about EV, don't waste money by folding the nuts!

Calling and losing the hand might put you on tilt, right. You might lose more money if you tilt, also true. However, IMO the solution is not to avoid this situation by folding such clear +EV hands and basically throwing money away, but rather to work on the tilt problem itself. Force yourself to stop playing if you lose such a hand. I know this is difficult, especially if the opponent won despite making a very bad call and you think you might get your money back if you continue playing. But you won't if such a beat upsets you too much. So take a break for an hour, a day or how long it takes you to stop thinking about this stupid hand over and over again.






actually i think 78 hearts would
be a favourite in this hand... or atleast not a big underdog....lets count for fun!

4h 9c 6h our friend got 99 no heart.

8 heart outs with 78 (9h is dead as that would give 4 of a kind)
4 fives and 4 tens= ~16% turn 16% river for straight.
and flush adds 16% turn and 16% river aswell.

however some of these is doubles (like 10h 5h) so we got to take them out of the flushdraw. meaning 6 hearts left to hit?

so 6 hearts + 8 straight card possibilities=14 cards times 2 means 28 cards to hit times 2%=56% chanse for 78h to hit his hand. altho! we need to count in the 999s counter chanses to beat a outdraw.

as 6s and 4s would give the other opponents 4 of a kinds he got one 9 left in the deck and the chanse of both the turn and the river pairs with eachother... how to count that out well only way i could think of is to add another 6% on the rivercard to pair with whatever the turn card was. (as its then 3 cards left of that kind thats not in someone whos activly in the hand?) meaning our friend got a 2*2% (the last nine) and a 6% for pairing last card-

shortly 10% of drawing out vs a possible flush/straight.

so the 78 of hearts got at its worste a 56-10% chanse to win ~46% chanse to win?

if my countings are off please correct me im still learning this game..



however the 78 beeing a 46% favourite makes you right he IS a big fabvourite to win this hand as big as 54% favourite if im right.

and id always be ready to gamble if i was even a 51% favourite ;)


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 7 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron