I played on MANSION poker for a little bit, so from time to time I get promo's sent to me in my e-mail.

Now, I've never placed a bet in an online sportsbook, but this deal looks too sweet to pass up from an uninformed persons standpoint.




It seems completely +EV from the way I understand it. Bet $1100 on the Steelers, if they cover, win $1000, if they lose, break even.

Am I understanding this right? Any help would be appreciated.

sounds right to me. If I were you I would call them directly and word it to them just how you did to us. If it is legit, let me know, I want to get in on it. Best way to do it would be to have you and a friend bet opposite sides. That way you are 100% to earn a 50% profit.

I just talked to their online support:

I think you must select the Pittsburgh Steelers for it to count.

That's why this raises questions for me. How is this +EV for them?

Paradise Pokers Sports book does something like that fairly frequently. Not for 1000 though. But usually once a month they will have a 20 dollar no lose bet on something stupid like will so and so score more or less than x points in a game. To do it for a grand though seems crazy. They must have a lot of bad bets being placed and are making a boat load of cash.

Is this available for new customers as well? If I were to signup for Mansion today could I get a piece of this?

To answer the question of how this is +EV for Mansion...I guess they're just trying to attract the high rollers with 6-figure sportsbetting bankrolls to stay with them for the entire upcoming NFL season. There are a number of bettors out there who do go out and lose thousands and thousands of dollars. Mansion is just trying to bring as many of them to their book as they can, and this offer will certainly get people's attention.

Plus, I'm sure that Mansion is hedging things on their end of this as well, they'd be crazy not to.

I've got my $ tied up in alot of different sites right now, so I don't think I have the ~$1700 or so to hedge this. Just going to be $1000 or nothing for me.

As far as I know this offer is available to everyone. It was advertised on their homepage.

Yeah, I've got most of my bankroll tied up in online sites too, but I think I can scrap together $1100 by the end of the weekend if Prima can process.

What do you mean by hedging?

You would bet the opposite side of the line at another sportsbook to guarantee you would win some money.

The bet on the Steelers will give you +1000 or 0

If you bet on Miami at another sportsbook you can pretty much guarantee a profit.

Example:

Bet $1100 on Steelers at -5, -110
Bet $540 on Miami +5 at Pinnacle, -118

If Steelers win-
+1000 on Steelers win
-540 on Miami loss
-------------------------
= +460

If Miami wins-
0 on Steelers loss
+456.63 on Miami win
-------------------------
= +456

You make it so that you are pretty much guaranteeing around $460 profit
If you just bet the Steelers, you are going for $1000 or $0

If the Steelers win by exactly 5, its a push in both cases

Its basically up to you whether you want to go for some sure cash or the big win. You can even hedge more or less. You could only bet $300 on Miami if you want to.

Great idea! Thanks for the detailed explaination.

I'm not much of a sports fan so don't know...

I already deteured off to learn backgammon once.... maybe I'll do some more research again.

I just made my $1100 bet

My previous biggest sports bet was like $10 I think!

Not sure if I'm going to hedge it or not. I'll look at the lines as we get close to Sept. 7th I think.

I also signed up through another affiliate (sorry PSO) that gives a nice bonus.

PM me if you're interested or check out my blog.

This better not run dry before my withdrawals clear

OK, I haven't done sports betting before, either, so this might be a stupid question. But what if Miami wins by less than 5?

You only win the $1000 from Mansion if Pitt wins by > 5, all other cases you lose and get refunded.

Ok all the situations

1. Steelers win by > 5, you win the Steelers $1100 bet
2. Steelers win by 5, you push and get your money back
3. Steelers win by 4,3,2 or 1, you lose the bet and Mansion will pay your $1100 back
4. Miami wins, you lose the bet and Mansion will pay your $1100 back

If you are hedging and have a bet on Miami +5, this means that if Miami wins the game OR Steelers win by 4 or less, you win your bet on Miami.

so the situations again if you were betting on Miami:
1. Steelers win > 5 : you win the Steelers bet, lose the Miami bet
2. Steelers win by 5 : you push on both bets as long as they were -5 and +5 (you may be able to wait and find a line of Miami like +5.5 or +6 where you will actually come out ahead no matter what)
3. Steelers win by 4, 3, 2 or 1 : you lose Steelers bet, win Miami bet
4. Miami wins: you lose the Steelers bet, you win the Miami bet

Does that make sense? if it doesn't I'll try to break it down more

If Pittsburgh wins by less than 5 then you lose the bet. You are betting that the win by MORE than 5. If they were to win by 5 exactly then it would be a push, and neither side wins, and the money would be refunded.

This is why if you plan on hedging you need to make sure that the line is exactly the same.